closed
supply loss
vs pre-war
At the pump: US average petrol prices rose from ~$3.03/gal before the war to ~$4.24/gal in April 2026 — a jump of +$1.21/gal driven largely by the supply shortfall. Every $10 rise in crude adds roughly 24 cents to a gallon of petrol.
Flights & freight: Jet fuel costs nearly tripled after Middle Eastern exports were cut off (IEA, May 2026). Airlines are passing surcharges on to passengers; freight costs are rising too, which pushes up prices for imported goods.
Outlook: The IEA (May 2026) assumes flows gradually resume from June 2026. If a ceasefire deal is reached, analysts estimate petrol prices could fall by ~18 cents/gal fairly quickly. Until then, prices are expected to stay elevated.
Sources: IEA Oil Market Report May 2026 · EIA · Al Jazeera · Oxford Energy Institute
Weekly Price Range & Fibonacci Levels
Estimated range — high ($111.57) and low ($95.05) · Updated with each morning briefing
Neutral zone — market is undecided between buyers and sellers
WTI Jumps Above $103 Amid Supply Concerns
WTI crude oil prices saw a significant jump today, climbing over $2 to settle at $103.61 per barrel. This marks a notable increase from yesterday's close of $101.17, pushing prices firmly into triple-digit territory.
What moved the price
The absence of specific recent news suggests today's price surge is likely driven by persistent underlying market anxieties. These include ongoing geopolitical tensions and a tight supply outlook, which continue to outweigh any demand concerns. Traders are likely reacting to the cumulative effect of these factors, leading to a bullish sentiment.
Key Focus Points
Geopolitical Tensions
While no new incidents were reported, the lingering impact of global geopolitical instability continues to fuel market uncertainty. Any perceived threat to supply routes or production capacity can quickly translate into higher prices.
Tight Supply Outlook
The market remains characterized by a relatively tight supply-demand balance. Limited spare capacity among major producers means that even minor disruptions or increases in demand can have a disproportionate effect on prices.
Dollar Strength
A weaker US dollar could also be contributing to the rise in oil prices, making dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to international buyers. This inverse relationship often plays a role in daily price movements.
Near-Term Outlook
Given the current market dynamics, WTI crude is likely to remain volatile with an upward bias in the near term. Sustained geopolitical stability and increased production would be required to significantly ease price pressures.
What This Means For You
Petrol and diesel prices remain elevated as crude oil trades near $104.
Pump prices typically follow crude oil moves with a 2–4 week lag.
Airlines are adjusting fuel surcharges in line with elevated jet fuel costs.
Jet fuel tracks Brent crude closely; surcharge changes usually appear on bookings within weeks.
Heating oil and gas costs reflect the current elevated crude oil environment.
Households in regions dependent on heating oil are most directly exposed to crude price swings.
Food transport and packaging costs are influenced by elevated oil prices.
Oil is embedded in fertiliser, plastic packaging, and freight costs across the food supply chain.